Geopolitical tensions are rising worldwide – and Europe is at risk of being crushed between the interests of the USA, Russia, and China. While autocratic tendencies are gaining traction in the United States, Russia continues its aggressive foreign policy, and China steadily increases its economic influence, Europe appears alarmingly disunited. The danger: a relapse into nationalistic egos that could split the European Union, weakening its influence and security.
A Look at America: Democracy on the Sideline?
The current developments in the United States evoke historical scenarios that many believed to be long overcome. Project 2025, a political agenda drafted by the conservative Heritage Foundation, outlines plans for a radical transformation of the state:
- Massive government layoffs: Around 50,000 civil servants are to be dismissed and partially replaced with loyal Trump supporters.
- Expanded executive power: The president would be granted significantly broader powers, weakening congressional oversight.
- Withdrawal from international commitments: NATO and the EU are to be deprioritized in favor of bilateral deals and an isolationist course.
If we were to transfer this scenario to Germany, the result would be unsettling:
- A chancellor with autocratic tendencies threatening Austria and Switzerland with military action to annex their territory.
- A defense minister openly advocating the use of force to silence protesters.
- A domestic intelligence service collaborating with authoritarian regimes.
- A finance minister implementing radical tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy while paralyzing social systems and deepening societal divides.
Sounds absurd? In the United States, these plans are taking shape. A glance at Project 2025 reveals how meticulously the transformation into an autocratic system is being prepared – and partially executed already.
Russia: The Constant Instigator in the East
Russia remains steadfast in pursuing its imperialist ambitions. The war in Ukraine has made it clear that Moscow is willing to redraw geopolitical borders by force. Western sanctions have impacted the Russian economy, yet energy exports to China and India keep the country stable enough to continue its war. At the same time, hybrid warfare against Europe has intensified:
- Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in Germany, France, and the UK.
- Propaganda campaigns on social media designed to erode trust in democratic institutions.
- Destabilization efforts in the Balkans to ignite unrest along the EU’s borders.
Putin’s strategy is transparent: a weakened, divided Europe incapable of forming a united front against Russian aggression.
China: The Economic Noose Tightens
While Russia leans on military strength, China operates more subtly – but no less effectively. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has quietly embedded itself in Europe. Chinese firms control ports in Greece, invest in Eastern European infrastructure, and gain economic leverage to exert political pressure if needed. Simultaneously, Europe’s dependence on Chinese goods, especially in the tech sector, is growing:
- In 2023, over 70% of all solar panels imported into Europe came from China.
- Electric mobility: China leads with brands like BYD and CATL, leaving European automakers struggling to keep pace.
China doesn’t need tanks to influence Europe. Economic dependency is the sharpest weapon of this rising superpower.
Europe: Caught Between Disunity and Helplessness
While the global powers pursue clear strategies, Europe appears hesitant and divided. Migration policies fracture alliances; national interests overshadow common goals:
- Poland and Hungary repeatedly block refugee distribution agreements.
- Germany remains internally divided over arms deliveries to Ukraine.
- France pushes for a unified European military while other countries cling to a NATO alliance that appears increasingly fragile as the US distances itself.
Economically, the EU remains a global heavyweight, but politically it has become vulnerable. Internal disagreements create openings for external forces to exploit.
The Looming Threat of Fragmentation
Populist movements are gaining momentum across the continent. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni leads a nationalist-conservative government. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National stands poised for electoral success. In Germany, the far-right AfD leads in several regions.
The risk is clear: a regression to nationalism, leaving Europe fragmented and exposed to the geopolitical ambitions of the US, Russia, and China.
My Perspective: Europe’s Last Chance
Europe stands at a crossroads. The US, under a possible Trump administration, may turn its back on the continent. Russia will persist with its destabilization efforts, while China tightens its economic grip. If the EU wants to remain a relevant political force, it must act decisively:
- Unified foreign policy: Clear, consistent stances toward Russia, China, and the US.
- Strengthened defense capabilities: Expand European defense structures – with or without NATO.
- Economic independence: Invest in key industries like energy, technology, and defense to reduce dependency on China and the US.
- Protection of democratic values: Counter propaganda, cyberattacks, and extremism through coordinated measures.
The coming years will decide whether Europe retains a unified, influential voice or becomes a patchwork of isolated states – vulnerable, fragmented, and marginalized on the world stage.
The time to act is now!